CJID — 14th August, 2026

Political and Electoral Context

The Osun State Governorship Election is one of Nigeria’s off-cycle governorship elections, a pattern rooted in judicial interventions that altered electoral cycles following disputes over previous governorship elections.

INEC initially scheduled the Osun governorship election for 8 August 2026. Following the enactment of the Electoral Act 2026, the Commission revised the timetable and moved the election to Saturday, 15 August 2026. With the major scheduled pre-election activities now concluded, attention must shift to whether citizens can exercise their franchise freely, safely and without intimidation, and whether all institutions and political actors comply with the rules governing voting, counting and collation.

As the final major governorship election before the 2027 general elections, Osun provides an important test of Nigeria’s evolving electoral framework. The poll will test the preparedness and neutrality of electoral institutions, the conduct of political actors, the capacity of security agencies to protect voters and electoral personnel, and the resilience of the information environment against manipulation and disinformation.

Pursuant to its mandate to promote credible elections, democratic accountability, responsible journalism and an informed citizenry, the Centre for Journalism Innovation and Development (CJID), through its Media in National Elections (MiNE), DUBAWA and Digital Tech, AI and Information Disorder Analysis Centre (DAIDAC) programmes, has monitored developments in Osun and implemented interventions aimed at strengthening electoral integrity, access to credible information and citizens’ participation.

The election is taking place against a background of intense political competition, unresolved political disputes, verified incidents of political violence and a challenging information environment. These issues require particular attention in the final hours before voting.

INEC’s Preparedness and Role

INEC has completed the major activities on its revised timetable and has continued preparations for deployment of personnel and materials. The credibility of the election, however, will be determined by performance on election day and during collation: timely opening of polling units, availability of correct materials, effective voter accreditation, transparent counting and collation, and prompt communication when operational problems or disputed claims arise.

The late inclusion of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) candidate, following a Federal High Court order, has brought the field to 15 candidates and created an additional logistical burden for INEC in the closing days of the process. The Commission must ensure that revised ballot papers and result sheets correctly reflecting the full field of candidates are produced and distributed across polling units without disruption.

INEC has also reported identifying 385 security flashpoints and about 200 difficult-to-access locations across the state following its risk assessment. These findings underline the need for logistics and security deployment to be guided by evidence, terrain and documented risk.

Candidates and Political Parties

The campaign period has witnessed extensive mobilisation by political parties and candidates. The contest is highly competitive, with incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party seeking re-election and Bola Oyebamiji of the All Progressives Congress (APC) among the leading challengers. Intimidation, violent incidents and inflammatory rhetoric have also accompanied the intensity of the race.

CJID reminds all candidates and political parties that elections exist to allow citizens to choose their representatives freely. Political competition must remain within the law, and party leaders have a responsibility to restrain supporters, reject retaliation and avoid language capable of encouraging violence.

Security Atmosphere

Security remains one of the foremost concerns surrounding the election. Campaigning has been accompanied by killings, attacks on political activities and facilities, and incidents that police accounts have in some cases linked to cult-related reprisals.

CJID’s Conflict Tracker has documented 13 verified fatal incidents of election-related violence in Osun between May 2026 and 13 August 2026. This reflects CJID’s verified reporting window and should not be added mechanically to casualty figures published by the police, political parties or other monitoring organisations, which may cover different periods, incidents and attribution standards. The available evidence nevertheless shows a sustained pattern of violence requiring close attention before, during and after voting.

The closing days of the campaign have included an attack on a party office in Ilesa, a shooting around a gathering ahead of a final campaign rally in the Igbogi area, and an alleged attack on a governorship candidate’s convoy returning from an event in Ife Federal Constituency. The leading political camps have traded accusations over responsibility for attacks and the conduct of security agencies. Several earlier killings remain under investigation, with arrests and wanted notices reported but no public conclusion in a number of cases.

Security agencies have announced deployments involving more than 25,000 personnel across the police, Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps and Economic and Financial Crimes Commission. The scale of deployment is significant, but numbers alone will not determine whether voters feel safe. Public confidence will depend on the conduct, neutrality, proportionality and responsiveness of deployed personnel.

CJID calls on security agencies to protect voters, electoral officials, journalists and accredited observers; deploy according to documented risks rather than political direction; prevent intimidation and political violence; and ensure that enforcement, including action against vote buying, is impartial across political parties. Security presence should enable participation rather than discourage it.

Information Environment and Online Narratives

The information environment presents a second layer of electoral risk. CJID’s monitoring has identified recurring claims around political violence, threats, government performance, budget allocations, candidates’ records, election credibility and the possibility of manipulation. Some of these claims are directly verifiable; others require context, evidence and careful attribution rather than a simple true-or-false label.

A particularly important development involved a viral video of Senator Francis Fadahunsi containing threatening remarks against Accord Party members. Following public criticism and a police invitation, the remarks were attributed to artificial intelligence. An independent verification by The FactCheckHub subsequently found the viral remark to be authentic rather than AI-generated.

The episode illustrates an emerging information-integrity challenge ahead of 2027. Generative AI can be used to create synthetic or manipulated content, while growing public awareness of deepfakes can also provide a basis for authentic material to be dismissed as AI-generated. Verification must therefore work in both directions: establishing when content has been manipulated and establishing when claims of manipulation are themselves unsupported.

The physical and digital risks surrounding the election increasingly overlap. Violent incidents generate casualty figures, accusations, videos and images that circulate online; online threats and inflammatory rhetoric can in turn heighten fear and tension offline. CJID will therefore monitor the security and information environments as connected parts of the electoral process.

Voter Participation and Inclusion

The credibility of the election will also depend on whether citizens can participate freely and meaningfully. Voters must be able to reach polling units without fear, access the voting process without intimidation and cast their ballots in secrecy.

Particular attention should be paid to women, young voters, persons with disabilities, elderly voters and residents of communities affected by insecurity or difficult terrain. Pre-election violence can affect participation even when an attack does not occur at a polling unit: fear of violence, retaliation or intimidation may influence whether citizens leave home to vote.

CJID urges voters to reject vote buying and other inducements. Political parties and their agents must refrain from practices that undermine the free expression of citizens’ political choices.

CJID’s Intervention in Osun

CJID’s intervention combines research and civic engagement, media support, information-integrity monitoring, fact-checking, conflict analysis and election observation. The aim is to provide independent, timely and evidence-based information while strengthening the ability of citizens, journalists and other stakeholders to navigate the electoral process.

Research and Civic Engagement

CJID’s Youth Perception Survey generated evidence on young people’s perceptions, expectations and experiences relating to elections and democratic participation in Osun. The findings have informed voter education materials and civic engagement focused on voting procedures, citizens’ rights and responsibilities, and information needs before, during and after the election.

In partnership with the Nigeria Youth Futures Fund (NYFF), CJID also convened a town hall for more than 100 young people aged 18 to 35, focused on civic knowledge, informed electoral participation and peaceful, issue-based engagement.

Media and Information Integrity

CJID has sustained engagement with a coalition of more than 40 media partners and journalists covering the election. The coalition is intended to strengthen timely, credible and public-interest reporting, supported by verified field information and contextual analysis.

Through DUBAWA and collaboration with the Nigerian Fact-Checking Coalition, CJID is monitoring and verifying claims concerning INEC, candidates, security incidents, voting procedures, polling locations, results and alleged violence. Through DAIDAC, the Centre is also monitoring manipulated media, emerging uses of AI, coordinated amplification and other forms of information manipulation.

Election Observation and Analysis Centre

CJID has deployed 33 accredited journalist-observers across Osun State. Their work is supported by a central Election Analysis Centre and Observatory bringing together election analysts, researchers, conflict and security analysts, fact-checkers, digital monitors and other experts to receive, verify and analyse reports from the field.

The Centre provides an additional layer of verification so that information emerging from the field is assessed against available evidence and relevant electoral standards before it informs public communication or institutional escalation.

The Osun deployment, supported by the Royal Norwegian Embassy in Nigeria, forms part of CJID’s broader work on electoral accountability, information integrity, fact-checking, media freedom and democratic governance across West Africa.

Key Issues Requiring Attention on Election Day

Based on the pre-election environment, CJID identifies the following issues as requiring particular attention:

• Opening of polling units, availability of materials and election logistics.
• BVAS accreditation, technical failures and the speed of resolution.
• Security, political violence and the conduct of security personnel.
• Voter intimidation, suppression and restrictions on participation.
• Vote buying and other forms of electoral inducement.
• Protection and freedom of movement of journalists and accredited observers.
• False or misleading claims about voting procedures, security incidents and INEC.
• Manipulated or synthetic media, including unsupported claims that authentic material is AI-generated.
• Counting and collation, including fabricated result sheets, premature victory claims and false declarations.
• The distinction between isolated incidents and patterns affecting a wider part of the state.

Call to Action

The responsibility for a credible election does not rest with INEC alone. It is shared by political parties, candidates, security agencies, voters, journalists, civil society organisations, digital platforms and the broader Nigerian public.

• INEC should maintain operational independence and neutrality, comply with the Electoral Act 2026 and its regulations, communicate promptly, and respond clearly to credible concerns capable of affecting public confidence.
• Security agencies should protect voters and electoral personnel without partisan consideration, prevent political thuggery, cult-related violence and intimidation, and avoid conduct that could reasonably be interpreted as partisan interference.
• Candidates and political parties should restrain supporters, reject violence and intimidation, disavow the use of cult groups, thugs and other criminal actors, and use lawful mechanisms to challenge disputed results.
• The media should verify election-related claims before publication, avoid amplifying inflammatory or unverified content, provide accurate information about voting procedures and maintain fair coverage.
• Voters should exercise their rights peacefully, reject vote buying and intimidation, and verify information before sharing it.
• Digital platforms should strengthen measures against coordinated manipulation, impersonation, manipulated media and harmful election-related content while protecting legitimate political expression and civic participation.

Conclusion

As the final major governorship election before Nigeria’s 2027 general elections, the Osun poll provides an important test of the country’s electoral institutions, security architecture and information environment. Its significance will ultimately be measured by whether the people of Osun are able to choose their governor freely, safely and on the basis of credible information.

CJID calls on all stakeholders to place the rights and interests of the people of Osun above partisan considerations. The Centre will continue to monitor developments before, during and after voting and will provide independent, evidence-based analysis of the electoral process.

Akintunde Babatunde
Executive Director
Centre for Journalism Innovation and Development (CJID)

Amina Miango, Esq.
Lead, Osun 2026 Election Mission
Centre for Journalism Innovation and Development (CJID)