In the past, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has declared some elections inconclusive. This occurs when the number of voters who have not yet voted, or where elections were cancelled or didn’t take place in certain areas, exceeds the margin between the leading candidates. To prevent the disenfranchisement of voters, INEC conducts supplementary elections in these areas before announcing the final winner.
What then is the margin of lead principle?
The margin of lead principle has become increasingly important in our electoral process, as it is used to determine the outcome of an election. Before the Electoral Act of 2022, the principle was captured mainly as a policy by INEC, supported by its regulations and guidelines for the conduct of elections. The principle came to prominence during the 2015 Kogi State Governorship election, where the returning officer declared the election inconclusive despite the APC candidate leading by 41,353 votes before his sudden death. The election was declared inconclusive because the number of cancelled votes – 49,953, was higher than the margin of lead between the first two candidates, who had 240,867 votes and 199,514 votes respectively. The margin of lead principle simply states that where the total number of registered voters who have collected their PVCs in polling units where elections did not hold or were cancelled exceeds the margin between the top two candidates in an election, the election will be declared inconclusive and supplementary polls will be held.
Previously, the number of registered voters was used to calculate the lead principle. However, this approach was problematic, as not all registered voters collect their Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs), the essential requirement for voting on election day. Expecting individuals without PVCs to participate in a supplementary election has historically led to complications. With the enactment of the new Electoral Act in 2022, this principle was revised to state:
“Where the margin of lead between the two leading candidates in an election is NOT in excess of the total number of voters who collected their Permanent Voters’ Cards (PVCs) in Polling Units where elections are postponed, voided or not held in line with Sections 24(2 & 3), 47(3) and 51(2) of the Electoral Act 2022, the Returning Officer shall decline to make a return for the constituency until polls have been conducted in the affected Polling Units and the results collated into the relevant forms for Declaration and Return.”
While some legal analysts argue that the Margin of Lead principle is unconstitutional and may complicate the electoral process, this principle not only ensures a decisive majority but also promotes comprehensive citizen participation in the electoral process. The Margin of Lead principle remains an essential tool in upholding electoral integrity, enhancing legitimacy, and ensuring that every citizen’s vote counts in determining the outcome of an election.
- Paragraph 62, Regulations and Guidelines for the Conduct of Elections, 2022
