African Elections  in 2025 Amid Democratic Regression

By Amina Miango

Introduction

Elections are critical moments for political transitions and democratic consolidation, and in some cases, they signify the end of prolonged authoritarian rule. While some African countries have made strides toward free and fair elections, others continue to grapple with electoral malpractices, military interference, illegal tenure elongations, and political instability. The credibility of electoral processes often determines the governance trajectory, establishing political legitimacy and influencing economic policies and social stability. 2024 was an election super year with over 17 African countries going to the polls in different elections. For 2025, about 11 African countries are expected to hold regional, parliamentary, and presidential elections. These elections could reshape each country’s political landscape, reinforcing democratic norms or deepening existing crises.

Democratisation across Africa in the 1990s coincided with the universalisation of liberal democracy and the end of the Cold War with more countries, especially in West Africa, abandoning military rule for representative democracy. There was hope that these moves, despite authoritarian governments in Cameroon, Libya, Egypt, and Zimbabwe, among others, the acceptance of democracy as an alternative showed that the continent was on the right path towards embracing ideals that could potentially move it towards development. Decades later, Africa faces unique challenges, ranging from constitutional crises to security threats, economic instability, corruption and governance problems. There has been a consensus among scholars and experts about the increase of democratic retrogression around the world. In Africa, democratic regression has been on the rise, driven by military coups, authoritarian rule, and the shrinking of civic spaces, as seen in the growing restrictions on human rights and press freedom.

Between 2020 and 2024, there have been coups and attempted coups in Burkina Faso, Gabon, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Mali and Niger; While the shortcomings of regional organisations like the Economic Community Of West African States  (ECOWAS) and African Union (AU) have been spotlighted for their inability to hold governments accountable, political instability and other factors such as illegal tenure extensions by civilian authoritarian regimes, poor governance, economic hardships, insecurity, and corruption have also played a significant role in the resurgence of military regimes. The failure of many African countries to conduct credible elections and ensure peaceful transfers of power is a key driver of democratic regression across the region. These challenges have led to the shrinking of civic space and the weakening of critical democratic institutions, including the judiciary, legislature, and media.

When Captain Ibrahim Traoré seized power in Burkina Faso in September 2022, his primary justification was the ousted regime’s failure to contain the escalating insurgency and insecurity. A significant development following the resurgence of military regimes across the region has been a surge of pan-Africanism, with the juntas seen as being pro-Africa and pushing for establishing new alliances. In contrast, old alliances are scrutinised for their benefits to the continent. For example, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have withdrawn from the regional economic and political bloc ECOWAS after carrying out military takeovers. In addition, they have established the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and expressed readiness to ally with China and Russia, signalling a shift away from historical alliances with France. 

Research shows a growing acceptance of military rule across the continent.  An increasing number of young people across the continent favour military regimes over democratic governance, viewing the latter as ineffective in addressing Africa’s challenges. Meanwhile, some argue that democracy should be shaped by the continent’s unique traditions and history rather than Western models. Whatever side of the argument one finds themselves, the concept of democracy not only allows for all citizens to participate in governance but that no single group dominates and oppresses another; democracy by its very nature can embrace and implement change when compared to authoritarianism, where power structures are centralised, limit thought and expression. 

By examining these country-specific contexts for how elections and democracy are being implemented, we gain insight into the broader state of democracy on the continent and its potential implications for elections, governance, stability, and regional politics.

Central African Republic (CAR)

The Central African Republic, as the name implies, is found in the Centre of Africa. Like many colonised African countries, CAR gained independence from France in 1960. It has over six million people as of 2021 and has had long periods of instability and internal conflicts. Despite being rich in resources, CAR has constantly been placed amongst the poorest countries in the world. In 2022, CAR ranked 191st of 193 on the Human Capital and Development Index. Politically, CAR has not fared better.  After a prolonged period of conflict in 2012, a peace agreement was finally achieved in 2019 with 14 armed groups, and elections held in 2020 to elect a President and a National Assembly.  In 2023, the Central African Republic (CAR) adopted a new constitution that extended the presidential term of office from five years to seven years, to allow President Faustin-Archange Touadéra to seek re-election. Elections in CAR have been marked by security concerns, with significant voter suppression in rebel-held territories and accusations of electoral fraud. The Electoral Commission and Constitutional Court play a role in mitigating disputes, but trust in the system remains low.

The upcoming elections will likely be overshadowed by ongoing security concerns, with a recent attack on a UN peacekeeping patrol in February 2025 leaving a peacekeeper dead. There are also security concerns in areas where armed groups freely operate, and a real threat of crises in neighbouring countries like South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo can potentially spill over. There is also the concern of extensive external interference, especially from Russia’s Wagner Group, which provides security support to the government.

Key electoral issues include security, economic recovery, and efforts to integrate former combatants into society. The opposition remains weak, fragmented, and stifled, just like the judiciary, as the President removes judges who refuse to support his political interference. The government and armed groups suppress press freedoms, and there is no support for independent media. There is limited ability and hope that any group can effectively mobilise against Touadéra’s ruling party. Elections are expected to be held in December 2025.

Cameroon

The presidential election in Cameroon is expected to be held in October 2025 and President Paul Biya, who has ruled since 1982, is set to contest for the 8th time. Elections in the country are frequently criticised for lacking transparency.  With a population of over 27 million people as of 2022, Cameroon has one of the highest literacy rates in central Africa, but authoritarian rule and conflict have hindered its development. Cameroon has a colourful colonial history. First, it was a German colony, which the French and English inherited after the defeat of Germany in World War II.

As Cameroon heads into another election cycle, key issues include the Anglophone crisis which has created a major humanitarian crisis in the country, and concerns about Biya’s age and succession. The anglophone crisis started in 2016 with protests over the appointment of French-speaking magistrates to courts in the anglophone areas. The government proceeded to put down protests using force, which led to the emergence of secessionist groups seeking the creation of the Republic of Ambazonia. These groups have continued to use violence against civilians to push their secessionist agenda, leading to the area being declared the second most dangerous area for civilians in Africa with more than 6,000 civilians killed since the crisis began and over 500,000 children out of school. 

Elections are expected to be held amidst these issues, and the opposition faces significant hurdles in mobilising voters due to separatist activities, which could disrupt the electoral process with widespread voter intimidation.  Government crackdowns on the media make Cameroon one of the most dangerous places in the world for journalists, according to Reporters Without Borders (RSF). The country’s multiparty system exists only in form, as opposition candidates face repression and arrests. The question of political transition remains central, as Biya, now in his 90s, has not designated a clear successor, raising fears of instability in a post-Biya era.

Côte d’Ivoire

A civil war started in Côte d’Ivoire in 2002, and the once peaceful nation saw itself divided into two, with the government fighting against insurgents. The civil war ended in 2007 after a peace agreement. Côte d’Ivoire has 7,359,399 registered voters as of the last election in 2020. The Human Rights Watch reported that over 50 people were killed in a post-election crisis after President Quattara won a controversial third term in office in 2020, after a constitutional interpretation allowed him to reset his term count. Ironically, there was also election violence from 2010 to 2011 caused by the declaration of former President Gbagbo despite having lost to Prime Minister Quattara.

The country has made strides in stabilising its electoral process since the violence, but tensions remain high. As the country moves towards the General elections in October 2025, the political landscape is shaped by generational shifts and the legacy of past conflicts. Key issues include economic inequalities, youth unemployment, and the influence of former presidents Laurent Gbagbo and Henri Konan Bédié’s political networks. Côte d’Ivoire liberalised private media house ownership in 2018, as it licensed the country’s first private TV station. Most media organisations with a significant reach are owned by the government, with the opposition having limited access to official government outlets during campaigns. There has always been a high level of suspicion and mistrust among political actors and their supporters of the electoral process. Hopefully, lessons have been learned from past electoral conflicts and their repercussions.

Gabon

In 2023, a military coup ended the domination of the Gabonese political system by the Bongo family, which had held power for over 50 years. The coup, led by General Brice Oligui Nguema, followed a controversial election widely seen as fraudulent.  Presidential elections have been fixed for 12th April 2025, with the incumbent military leader seeking to contest. The upcoming elections will test Gabon’s commitment to democratic governance. The Central African country has over 80% of its 2.5 million population living in urban areas. With 50% of its population under the age of 20, there were 627,805 registered voters for the 2016 elections, and the numbers are expected to be a little above that for the 2025 elections.

Key issues include electoral transparency, economic diversification away from oil dependence, and addressing corruption. Civil society and opposition groups demand an inclusive transition, but uncertainty remains over whether the military will allow a competitive election or seek to consolidate power under a civilian facade. Press freedom is still in its infancy, with Reporters Without Borders (RSF) stating that journalists commonly self-censor to avoid legal consequences.

Guinea

Guinea has had a history of military and authoritarian rule, with the country holding democratic elections for the first time in 2010. Guinea had recently experienced significant political turbulence, with the 2021 coup ousting the country’s first democratically elected leader, President Alpha Condé, after he controversially extended his rule beyond two terms. The ruling military junta, led by Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya, promised a return to civilian rule but has been slow in implementing electoral reforms. Guinea’s drafting of a new constitution and establishing a legitimate electoral framework have faced delays, leading to tensions between the junta and opposition groups. During the 2020 General election,  5,179,600 of its over 13 million population registered to vote with a 79% voter turnout.

Despite having one of the wealthiest mineral deposits in Africa, with 57% of its rural population working in agriculture, Freedom House ranks Guinea low and not free on the organisation’s Freedom in the World Index, with Guinea scoring poorly in the political rights and civil liberties categories. The upcoming elections will determine whether Guinea can transition to democratic governance or remain under authoritarian rule. Key political issues include constitutional clarity on term limits, military influence in politics, and economic development challenges. The opposition remains wary of the military’s intentions and fears that elections may be manipulated to favour junta-aligned candidates. Specific dates have not been fixed for the elections, but a referendum to determine set term limits for political offices is expected to be held in May 2025. Election dates will possibly be announced later.

Guinea-Bissau

Guinea-Bissau, one of the former Portuguese colonies in West Africa, gained independence in 1974 and has had a history of political instability, a civil war between 1998 and 1999 after an attempted coup,  with 9 military coups or attempted coups, the most recent attempts in 2022 and 2023. President Umaro Sissoco Embaló has consolidated power since winning the 2019 election, often clashing with parliament and opposition parties. Opposition figures state that the President’s tenure officially ended in February 2025; however, the president insists that his tenure ends in September, affirming that the earliest a presidential election can happen is November 2025. Despite attempts to mediate the political crisis by ECOWAS, there has been an impasse, with ECOWAS mediators leaving the country after being threatened with expulsion by the President.

Guinea-Bissau has the reputation of being a narco State with military and political leaders directly involved in the drug trade, further fuelling the instability in the Nation. The upcoming elections will focus on key issues, including political corruption, drug-related crimes, infrastructure, unequal access to education and healthcare, and poverty and economic stagnation. It will also determine whether Embaló’s dominance has curbed the military’s appetite for political power.

Malawi

Malawi’s national elections have always been competitive. In 2020, the Malawi Constitutional Court overturned the 2019 Presidential elections, making it one of the few countries in Africa where this will ever happen. This provided a certain level of credibility to Malawi’s electoral process, which saw the court-ordered presidential election re-run lead to the defeat of incumbent Peter Mutharika by Lazarus Chakwera, who had campaigned and promised to reduce corruption, poverty, and unemployment, all of which he is still struggling to achieve. The success of that election was seen as a victory for judicial independence, electoral integrity, and the rule of law. The next presidential election is scheduled to be held in September 2025.

Former Presidents Peter Mutharika and Joyce Banda are expected to challenge President Chakwera in this year’s election. In 2024, the El Niño-induced drought that affected southern Africa resulted in the loss of livelihoods and a rise in unemployment, as 80% of the population resides in rural areas. As the next elections approach, key issues include economic mismanagement, corruption, and public sector inefficiencies. There is also suspicion and a general lack of trust in the Election Management Body – the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC), and calls for electoral reforms before the elections. The opposition positions itself for a comeback, capitalising on public discontent over the government’s unfulfilled campaign promises. A 2022 survey stated that 66% of Malawians agreed that the government was doing a poor job of fighting corruption. Malawi has a vibrant civil society and media landscape. While instances of repression exist, there is optimism for continued democratic consolidation, particularly with support from institutions such as security agencies and the judiciary.

Seychelles

The least populated country in Africa, with an estimated population of over 120,000 people as of 2024, Seychelles has a relatively stable electoral process with elections expected to be held in September 2025. The last election in  2020 saw Wavel Ramkalawan of the opposition Linyon Demokratik Seselwa (LDS) defeat incumbent Danny Faure in the Presidential election. This was the first time the LDS was winning a presidential election.

Seychelles has the highest gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in Africa, and its economy is highly dependent on tourism, which was affected by the worldwide lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic.  Key issues include economic recovery from the COVID-19 downturn, tourism sustainability, potential effects of climate change on its huge fisheries economy, and social inequality. The government seems committed to fiscal prudence, having sustained a decline in public debt to 58.3% of the GDP  and increased foreign exchange reserves to $682 million as of 2023.

Though a relatively young democracy, with its first multi-party election held in 1993 after gaining independence in 1976, Seychelles has maintained electoral success, with 88.4% voter turnout in the last elections despite the COVID-19 pandemic. Women constitute 23% of the Parliament, 8 out of 33 members, making Seychelles number 79 in the global ranking for women in parliament and 27 in Africa. In its 2023 Democracy report, V-Dem ranked Seychelles as a liberal democracy, with the country holding the number one spot in Africa and being the only ranked Liberal democracy on the continent meaning judicial and legislative limitations on executive power exist, as well as the protection of civil liberties and equal treatment under the law. It has also been ranked as the best-governed country in Africa.

Tanzania

A 2023 estimate puts Tanzania’s population at 66,617,606, with a GDP of $79.6 billion. One political party has held political power since independence in 1964. This has led to growing authoritarianism and complaints of repression and interference with the electoral process, particularly under former President John Magufuli during the 2020 presidential elections. The 2020 elections were widely criticised because of the repression of opposition candidates and the lack of transparency. Despite criticisms about Magufuli, his government saw the economy grow by 6% yearly, thus making it one of the strongest growths on the continent. He also led the country from low-income to middle-income status, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank. Since taking office, President Samia Suluhu Hassan has introduced political reforms, lifting bans on opposition rallies and promising fairer elections. However, concerns remain about the independence of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and potential state interference.

The upcoming elections will be a major test of Tanzania’s democratic progress and an opportunity for close to 30 million Tanzanians to decide on their collective future. Key issues include electoral integrity, constitutional reforms, and balancing economic growth with civil liberties. While this is not the first time a woman will be contesting for the office of President, it is the first time a major political party is fielding a woman who is also an incumbent. The opposition, led by Chadema’s Tundu Lissu, seeks to reclaim political space, but the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) remains deeply entrenched.

Togo

Togo held Senatorial elections for a newly created Senate in February 2025. In 2024, the National Assembly undertook controversial constitutional amendments and reforms that sought to transform the country from a Presidential system to a Parliamentary one, where the Parliament would be bestowed with powers to vote for the President. Opposition figures, civil society, and other stakeholders extensively rejected the amendment. President Gnassingbe earlier postponed the Constitutional amendment to enable them to conduct more consultations. Still, less than two weeks after the parliamentary elections,  President Gnassingbe signed the proposed Constitution into law. Togo’s new Constitution passed with overwhelming support from Union for the Republic Party (UNIR) lawmakers and has the following new provisions among others:

  • The president would no longer be elected directly by the people but by the National Assembly, thus moving the country from a Presidential to a Parliamentary system.
  • Establishment of the President of the Council of Ministers (similar to the Prime Minister), who will be elected by the National Assembly and run the day-to-day operations of the government.
  • The person to be elected President of the Council of Ministers will be from the party or coalition with the highest number of seats in the National Assembly.
  • The term of office of the President under the new constitution will no longer be two 5-year terms in office but a single 6-year term.

Beyond this being seen as a means for the Gnassingbé family to perpetuate itself in power, the new constitution is seen as the ruling party’s attempt to sustain itself and ensure it remains in power for a long time. That does not bode well for any democracy.

Call to Action

Africa’s democratic future and resilience depend on collective action from leaders, civil society, the media, Election Management Bodies and citizens themselves. As Africa faces another important electoral year in 2025, democracy across the continent is being tested by political instability, shrinking civic spaces, and increasing disinformation. Now, more than ever, citizens, civil society, and regional organisations must take decisive action to safeguard free, fair, and credible elections.

  1. Elected officials uphold democratic principles by ensuring transparent electoral processes, respecting term limits, and protecting fundamental freedoms from authoritarian military regimes. We call on them to ensure the speedy implementation of timelines for the return to civil rule. Only the people should determine who governs, when, and how.
  2. Election Management Bodies (EMBs) across the region must continue to act with integrity, independence, and professionalism in delivering credible elections.
  3. Civil society organisations and the Media must continue as watchdogs, mobilisers and civic educators, advocating for electoral credibility and justice, countering disinformation, and amplifying citizens’ voices in all areas of governance.
  4. Regional Organisations like the ECOWAS and the African Union should develop more stringent methods of holding erring governments to account for democratic infractions. Present tools have been shown to be inadequate in entrenching democratic rules across the continent.
  5. Citizens are the most important demographic in any democratic process. They must continue to actively participate in it, demand accountability, and resist electoral manipulation.

Conclusion

The continent finds itself at a crossroads between democratic consolidation and regression. Diverse issues, including deep-seated political, economic, and security challenges, will shape the elections across the countries examined. The outcomes of these elections will have significant implications for governance, regional stability, and international relations. The rise of military juntas, constitutional manipulations to extend presidential terms, and increasing restrictions on press freedom and civil liberties threaten democratic progress. On the other hand, countries like Malawi and Seychelles demonstrate that institutional integrity and public trust in electoral systems can strengthen political accountability and credible democratic processes.

As African citizens prepare to exercise their right to vote, the role of civil society, the judiciary, regional organisations like ECOWAS and the African Union, and international observers will be crucial in ensuring free, fair, and transparent elections. The results of these elections will not only determine the future leadership of these nations but also shape the broader trajectory of democracy on the continent. Whether 2025 will mark a turning point for democratic resilience or a further slide into authoritarian rule remains to be seen. However, one thing is certain: the stakes have never been higher.

Cite this article

APA: Amina Miango. (2025). African Elections  in 2025 Amid Democratic Regression. CJID. Retrieved from https://thecjid.org/african-elections-in-2025-amid-democratic-regression/